New Delhi -LRB- CNN -RRB- -- Here 's the best way to understand the new India in 30 seconds . Watch this commercial -- or better yet , if you do n't understand Hindi , read on .

A smarmy-looking politician addresses a rural gathering , promising to give the people access to water . His speech is interrupted by a boyish young man , a villager , who pulls out his smartphone and plays a YouTube video for all to see : it 's the same politician , making the same promises at the last election , years ago .

`` I might be from the village , '' cries out the young man , `` but do n't think you can fool me ! '' The commercial -- marketing an Indian mobile service provider -- cuts to its familiar Hindi jingle , loosely translated as `` no making fools of us anymore , no making fools of us . ''

The story struck me because it weaves together some important trends and forces in India as the nation undertakes the biggest elections in world history .

The first trend is the immense proliferation of Internet-enabled smartphones . In most Western countries , people have discovered the Internet and grown with it in stages : from painfully slow dial-up connections , to broadband , to Wi-Fi , to 4G mobile Internet .

India 's story has been very different . Until recently only a small elite -- about a tenth of the population -- could access the Internet , mostly through PCs . Even today , there are only 57 million broadband subscribers in the country , according to the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India , or TRAI .

By comparison , there are about 900 million mobile subscribers -- a recent boom . Many of these mobile users are buying cheap smartphones and data packages to access the Internet . The offshoot is the opposite of what happens in the West : Hundreds of millions of Indians have never used a PC -- and likely never will -- but they can now begin to access the Internet on their phones . The Internet is aspirational in India ; it 's the new motorbike or washing machine .

The second trend is the rise of rural India . Again , according to TRAI , 40 % of mobile subscribers are now in villages and small towns . Even with the recent boom , rural subscriptions are still growing at more than twice the rate of urban ones .

These rural subscribers , as the commercial shows , often do n't speak English . But there 's no longer a great shame in being unable to speak the language of their colonial masters ; instead , there 's a new pride and confidence in India 's many regional dialects and languages . There 's new rural money , and a yearning to be stakeholders in their futures and to fight for more accountable government .

The third trend is India 's youth bulge . More than 100 million voters in India 's elections are first-timers who turned 18 in the last five years . Half of all Indians are under age 30 ; the average age in India is 28 .

Many of these young , brash Indians have cast off the fatalism of their forefathers . Growing up in an India of fast growth and development , they have more confidence in their culture , identity and language . Put that together with trends No. 1 and No. 2 , and the result is amplified . For the first time in India 's history , a majority of Indians are connected and engaged . They know about the skeletons in every politician 's closet -- and that information is power .

Some suggest that these trends mean India 's elections will be fought and decided on social media .

Politicians have taken their cue , rushing to every platform available : Twitter , Facebook and Google Hangouts . The numbers seem staggering at first . Facebook says Narendra Modi , the front-runner to be India 's next prime minister , is the second most `` liked '' politician in the world -LRB- 13 million likes -RRB- , after U.S. President Barack Obama -LRB- 40 million likes -RRB- .

According to Twitter , there has been a 600 % increase in political Tweets from India in the last year . Since January the two biggest parties , the BJP and the Congress , have grown their Twitter followings by 55 % and 351 % respectively .

India 's Internet and Mobile Association says a strong social media campaign could swing up to 4 % of votes .

Commentators have cited that data to brand India 's elections the country 's first-ever `` social media election . ''

For now , I 'm skeptical . Some of the outreach attempts have been amateur at best : As Vox.com pointed out , the BJP 's Twitter handle last week auto-tweeted anyone who mentioned the party on Twitter , including me and hundreds of others . In any case , the number of actual social media users represents a tiny percentage of the Indian electorate . Facebook says it has 100 million users in India : it sounds like a lot but it accounts for less than a tenth of Indians .

One reason for this -- apart from limits to Internet access -- could be that Twitter and Facebook remain English language services , relatable to a small subset of Indians .

Unlike China , which has a Chinese-language microblogging service called Sina Weibo , with hundreds of millions of users , India for now has no such indigenous , umbrella platform .

Why ? India is no monolith . There are dozens of languages , and an equal number of different Indias . Despite India 's growth and increased connectivity , which suggests a more unified nation , the country may actually be becoming more regional-focused , with more pride in local languages , trends and politicians . This is also why I think it 's far too early to call India 's elections for any one politician or party . The three trends of mobile reach , the rural rise and the youth bulge are each combustible forces bubbling in a cauldron of uncertainty .

Indians may want accountability and change , but it 's too soon to tell which way that will manifest itself . It remains unclear whether Indians will vote for their regional interests , or cast their ballot thinking about a macro national picture .

Watch India 's elections very closely . They 're immensely consequential -- for India , and the world . But placing too much importance on social media chatter could be misleading . Calling these elections too early could be embarrassing , too . It is , as the ad-jingle goes , a fool 's errand .

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A commercial shows India voter catching a politician recycling old , unfulfilled promises

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Ravi Agrawal : The power of mobile technology is helping shape India 's elections

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He says other key trends include the new prominence of rural areas and of young voters

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Agrawal : It 's a mistake to try to predict the outcome based on these trends